Numbers!

(The above image is an index map of Iran from the U.S. Defense Mapping Agency. Click here for more.)

• A recent survey conducted by a Virginia-based company which made telephone calls to Iranian citizens in Iran reports that 90% of the population favors a direct election of the supreme leader, i.e. the position that Ayatullah Khamanei currently fills.
• The same survey reports that 75% of Iranians favor naturalization of relations with the U.S. and that 45% would recognize Israel if there was a comprehensive agreement with the United States. (Al-Zaman and Washington Post.)
• The journal Foreign Policy published results of a survey in which over 3,000 American generals (active duty and not) were questioned about America’s military capacity. 60% said the U.S. Army is weaker today than it was five years ago. 37% believe that Iran was the biggest beneficiary of the war on Iraq, while 19% said America. (Al-Zaman and Foreign Policy.)

Pickin’ Sides

At the end of March, Syria will host a regional Arab Summit in Damascus, but Saudi Arabia has threatened to boycott the summit if Syria does not wield its influence in Lebanon to help end the current presidential vacuum. Currently, Syrian and Saudi relations are at a low, as evidenced by the Syrian delivery of the summit invitation to Saudi Arabia via a lower-level minister, and not Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem who had delivered all the other invitations.

Al-Quds al-Arabi has an in-depth analysis of the politics behind the Arab Summit, but it largely boils down to this: American influence vs. Iranian influence. Saudi Arabia is on Team America and Syria is on Team Iran. In the recent Vanity Fair article on American meddling in Palestinian affairs, we saw how susceptible leaders in the Middle East are to American influence and how willing many Arab officials are to comply with American demands in order to secure their hold on power in their own countries.

It would be very simplistic to say that a country’s relationship with America or any other entity determines every aspect of its policy decisions, but it is safe to say that Arab countries (and Iran) are divided into two blocs: Pro-West and Pro-Resistance.

PRO-WEST vs. PRO-RESISTANCE

Pro-West: To be a part of the Pro-West bloc, the country must normally fulfill a few qualifications: 1) Make peace with Israel; 2) Be willing to allow the U.S. military to use your country as a base or at least let us pass through it on our way to attack one of your neighbors; and 3) Be a repressive, autocratic government which prevents any type of popular Islamic movements from coming into power.

EGYPT

Egypt is the second largest recipient of US aid in the Middle East after Israel. Most recently, the Bush administration has bypassed congressional restrictions and approved $100 million in military aid to Egypt. Egyptian President and Autocrat Hosni Mubarak has been in power since 1981, and this is not because of popular support. Many believe that if Egypt were to hold democratic elections today, the vastly popular Muslim Brotherhood would win. The Muslim Brotherhood won a fifth of seats in the 2005 parliamentary elections and since then, the Egyptian government has continued to arrest leaders of the Brotherhood.

SAUDI ARABIA

First, watch this video of Bush in Saudi. It’s a known fact that Saudi Arabia is America’s staunchest regional ally, so I won’t elaborate. Saudi Arabia’s positions are normally in-line with the United States, but during the 2006 July War on Lebanon, popular support for Hezbullah was so overwhelming that the Saudi King actually had to give Hezbullah props. So again, the U.S. has influence, but there are times when figures make subtle gestures to assure minor support for Palestine or popular Islamic causes. You could put Kuwait in the same category as Saudi Arabia, but Qatar is more complicated because of al-Jazeera.

JORDAN

King Abdullah II met with George W. Bush this past week at the White House. See top three qualifications and Jordan matches all of them.

PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY

Yep.

Pro-Resistance: These countries and/or groups work outside the framework of Western, primarily American, influence in the region. They have made very public stands to support Resistance movements in the Middle East, either materially or verbally, and most consider Israel to be an enemy.

IRAN

Duh.

SYRIA

Syria is certainly no democracy, but the country and its leadership have not sought to cultivate a relationship with the West and instead have allied themselves with Hezbullah and Iran. The Syrian government has been accused of providing weapons to Hezbullah and Palestinian groups, but the administration does not make secret its Pro-Resistance status. Many view President Bashar al-Assad’s support of Hezbullah and Iran as purely opportunistic and it is believed that if Israel were to offer Syria the Golan Heights, then they would willingly abandon the heated discourse.

HEZBULLAH

I talk too much about Hezbullah.

HAMAS

See this article and you will understand.

Pro-Eh?: Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen are kind of in a nebulous category. Iraq is headed by Shi’i Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki who has very close ties with Iran, but there are also 200,000 American troops in his country. Lebanon is divided between the two camps — and perhaps this is at the center of the recent presidential crisis. Yemen is kind of weird. Yemeni President Salih is as Pro-West as they come and foreign investment flourishes in the country, but the population is not about to wave any American flags.

A little early, no?

Al-Jazeera reports that Republican presidential candidate John McCain will visit Israel on March 20 as part of a delegation of U.S. senators. This is reportedly the first time that a Republican or Democratic presidential candidate has visited Israel during an election year. A commenter on al-Jazeera pointed out that this visit will coincide with the fifth-year anniversary of the war on Iraq.

I hope Senator McCain has a great time! Here’s my recommendation for a travel itinerary:

Start with a trip to Tel Aviv and eat at the vegan restaurant Tov al-Khaim (Taste of Life). Their lasagna is really good. Seriously.

Then he could make his way north to Haifa and check out the very cool Bah’ai Temple. If he’s feeling ambitious, then he should head on over to the West Bank and visit the newly expanded Jewish settlement Givat Zeev.

McCain is really old, so if he feels like he’s about to die or something, he should check out the awesome medical facilities in Gaza City. It might take him, like, a lifetime to cross the border and then another month to get adequate medical supplies, but this should be no problem since he has been complicit in instigating civil strife in Gaza!

Hezbullah and Iran pose biggest threats to Israel

An Israeli intelligence report, which was presented to the Israeli parliament this week, brought forth the following regional security assessments, according to al-Hayat:

• Iran continues to represent the greatest threat to Israel.
• There is a greater chance of conflict breaking out with Hezbullah along the northern Lebanese-Israeli border than any other front.
• Israel faces five areas of security threats including Syria, but Iran and Hezbullah are the most prominent.

The Israeli intelligence apparatus consists of two main branches — Shabak (or Shin Bet), which is for domestic security and Mossad, which is handles external matters.

Covert Missions Gone Awry: Vanity Fair reports on America’s role in spurring a Palestinian civil war

(Image of Mohammad Dahlan from Vanity Fair)

Vanity Fair has published a must-read article in its April issue. Here is an excerpt from the article which explains the central conclusion:

Vanity Fair has obtained confidential documents, since corroborated by sources in the U.S. and Palestine, which lay bare a covert initiative, approved by Bush and implemented by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Deputy National Security Adviser Elliott Abrams, to provoke a Palestinian civil war. The plan was for forces led by [Mohammad] Dahlan, and armed with new weapons supplied at America’s behest, to give Fatah the muscle it needed to remove the democratically elected Hamas-led government from power. (The State Department declined to comment.)

But wait — what do you say? The U.S. plan backfired and actually increased support for Hamas and allowed the group to gain full control of the Gaza Strip?

The article tracks American policy makers’s relationship with Mohammad Dahlan, a Fatah official and former security advisor, who has been instrumental in orchestrating deals between Fatah fighters and the U.S. In 2006, Bush encouraged Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to hold parliamentary elections in the West Bank and Gaza Strip — not expecting that Hamas would win a majority of seats in the Palestinian parliament.

Hamas’s victories in the election were largely a reaction to the widespread culture of political corruption which Fatah fostered. This article gives evidence to that claim and portrays Abbas and other Fatah officials as willing tools of an American administration seeking to bring down the democratically-elected Hamas government. Take for example this “talking points” memo left behind by a US State Department official:

“Hamas should be given a clear choice, with a clear deadline: … they either accept a new government that meets the Quartet principles, or they reject it The consequences of Hamas’ decision should also be clear: If Hamas does not agree within the prescribed time, you [Abbas] should make clear your intention to declare a state of emergency and form an emergency government explicitly committed to that platform.”

Walles and Abbas both knew what to expect from Hamas if these instructions were followed: rebellion and bloodshed. For that reason, the memo states, the U.S. was already working to strengthen Fatah’s security forces. “If you act along these lines, we will support you both materially and politically,” the script said. “We will be there to support you.”

What I find most depressing, though not shocking, is how Fatah officials are so willing to collaborate with Israel and the United States. These officials are more interested in preserving their positions of power and taking illicit bribes than working with Palestinians against a brutal military occupation.

Read the full article for more details about how the US provided Fatah with arms shipped through Egypt and approved by Israel. Way to go, Fatah! You know your morals are intact when you are receiving weapons shipments approved by the very power which is occupying your land and killing your people. It is curious that Fatah is not able to see that the ultimate benefactor here is Israel. Fatah and Hamas are being torn apart by internal violence while Israel solidifies control over Palestinian land.

I shouldn’t have voted

I voted for Obama in the democratic primaries, convincing myself that his policy toward Israel might be more “balanced” — meaning, Obama might acknowledge the atrocities committed against Palestinians by the Israeli army; that Obama might recognize that Israel has failed to be an adequate partner in peace negotiations; and that Obama might attempt to engage Hamas officials in a dialogue.

I think I was very wrong. Here’s Obama:

“One of the enemies we have to fight — it’s not just terrorists, it’s not just Hezbollah, it’s not just Hamas — it’s also cynicism.” (NY Times, March 14, 2007)

“I start with the premise that Israel is a stalwart ally of ours and their security cannot be compromised.” (The Jerusalem Post, January 29, 2008)

“Our hearts go out to the family of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and we are praying for a recovery on his part, and I think the entire world is watching because we recognize that his presence here in the entire process was absolutely important and constructive.” (Associated Press, January 6, 2006)

In response to a US decision to provide $30 billion in military aid to Israel over a decade:

“The Administration’s failed policies in Iraq, in a war that never should have been authorized, have strengthened Iran and emboldened Hamas and Hezbollah. That makes it more important that ever that the United States live up to its commitment to ensure Israel’s qualitative military edge in a dangerous region. For that reason, I support the agreement on military assistance reached today.” (States News Service, August 16, 2007.)

I looked to see if Obama had made any comments on the recent killings in Gaza — over 110 Palestinians killed by Israel in a few days — but I found nothing.

So, what is the solution? Do we vote for Obama and tell ourselves that he represents “Change We Can Believe In”? Or do we come to terms that Obama is not really offering any kind of substantial change, but that instead, the prospect of a Clinton or McCain presidency is just too frightening?

I say, vote for Obama, but don’t feel good about it.

Here is a much-circulated article by Ali Abunimah on Obama’s shift from Palestinian sympathizer to Israel supporter.

Death threats

(Image of Sayyid Muhammad Ali al-Husayni from al-Arabiya.)

Al-Arabiya reports that Sayyid Muhammad Ali al-Husayni, a Lebanese Shi’i marja (source of religious emulation), has received a series of letters threatening to kill him and his family which are signed by the Shi’i Youth of the Resistance (shabaab al-shia al-muqawama). Al-Husayni has recently given several interviews to newspapers in which he has been critical of Hezbullah, even suggesting that he could be an alternative to the current secretary general Nasrallah. Al-Husayni describes his relationship with Hezbullah as “very bad.” But al-Husayni does not claim that Hezbullah sent the letters to him.

Syria in the News

Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports that the United States has increased security measures against Syria by implementing strengthened searches on ships entering US ports which have passed through Syrian ports. The State Department said that these measures were taken because of Syria’s connections with “terrorist” organizations.

Al-Hayat reports that Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem attended a conference for Arab foreign ministers in Cairo where he criticized Condoleezza Rice’s recent trip to the Middle East by saying she came only to “justify the fleet of ships which are off the coast of Lebanon.”

Al-Jazeera to Islam: We’re sorry

(Note: This is not the clip that prompted an apology from al-Jazeera.)

Al-Jazeera issued an apology to viewers on their website today (and possibly on-air) for comments that were made against Islam during a broadcast of their controversial debate show “The Opposite Direction” or, al-Itijah al-Muakkis.

The official statement does not give specifics, but an English-language article from The Gulf Times says that the anti-Islam comments were made by Syrian female Wafa Sultan during a debate on the cartoons of the Prophet in Denmark.

(Update: Al-Quds al-Arabi reports that the university professor Wafa Sultan expressed support for the drawings of the Prophet and sought to justify the recent Israeli massacres in Israel.)

The program al-Itijah al-Muakkis is one of the most popular, if not the most popular, show on al-Jazeera. The moderator, Faysal al-Qasim, is very blunt and direct in the questions that he poses to the two guests who are expected to debate on a given subject. The topics range from “America’s democracy in the Middle East” to “Why are there autocracies in the Middle East?” What ensues is normally a very heated debate, so I am curious as to what could’ve been said which prompted al-Jazeera to issue an apology.

I posted a video of the show above to give people a feel for the format and a chance to listen to the ominous intro music. The topic of debate for this episode is Bush’s visit to the Middle East. Faysal al-Qasim poses such questions as: Isn’t George Bush the one who has killed millions of Iraqis or turned them into refugees? Then, debate ensues.

Narratives Under Siege

(Iyad and Jaqueline were shot to death by Israeli soldiers during the recent Israeli aggressions on Gaza.)

The Palestinian Centre for Human Rights, which is based in Gaza, has launched a feature called “Narratives Under Siege” where Palestinians can tell their own stories:

“I heard shooting, then screaming. I rushed upstairs to see what had happened, and they were both on the floor. Jaqueline was already dead, but Iyad was still alive. The neighbours called an ambulance and we ran to the hospital with him, but he died as soon as we arrived.”

East Jabaliya in the northern Gaza Strip bore the brunt of Israel’s latest military incursion into Gaza. The incursion, which was launched in the early hours of Thursday February 28, lasted four days and nights. In that time Israeli troops killed 108 Palestinians, including 54 unarmed civilians, 26 of whom were children. The Palestinians who live in and around Abed Rabbo Street in east Jabaliya suffered intense air strikes by F16 planes and helicopters, tank shelling, snipers, and having their houses invaded and vandalised by Israeli soldiers, who tied adults up with ropes, or else locked whole families into single rooms in order to use their homes as sniper towers to target local Palestinian fighters. Sixteen year old Jaqueline Abu Shebak and her fourteen year old brother, Iyad both lived on Abed Rabbo Street with their mother and three other young brothers and sisters. The children’s uncle, Hatem Hosni Abu shebak, who lives next door, found the bodies of Jaqueline and Iyad in the early hours of Saturday March 1st, when he rushed upstairs after hearing intense shooting and then screaming.

“I hear shooting and Iyad was screaming. As I ran upstairs the shooting continued, and both children were on the living room floor “he says, as we sit in the blood-stained living room where Jaqueline died and Iyad was critically injured. “I tried to revive them, but Jaqueline was dead, and even though Iyad was alive and making sounds we could not save him. We had to wait for an ambulance because my car had been shelled by an Israeli tank.” Hattim Abu Shebak shows us the mirrors and windows shattered by bullets, the bullet holes in the walls, and the children’s blood on the furniture.

The Israeli soldiers who killed Jaqueline and Iyad had occupied the house opposite, and were holding Ramez Etbail and his family hostage so they could use the house to shoot at local Hamas fighters. The Israelis fired straight through the kitchen window of the Abu- Shebak house, striking Jaqueline and Iyad who were both cowering in the corner.

To read the rest of the story, click here.

BFF!

Ahmadinejad with Iraqi President Jalal Talibani from al-Jazeera.

Ahamadinejad to visit Najaf and Karbala

Al-Hayat reports that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will visit the Shi’i holy cities of Najaf and Karbala to visit the shrines of Imams Ali and Husayn, respectively, and pay a visit to Grand Ayatullah Sistani. A representative from Sistani’s office has confirmed the visit, but did not give details on what would be discussed.

Iraqi security forces have taken increased security measures in preparation for his visit and the Electric Ministry announced that electricity will not be cut from Imam Ali’s shrine in Najaf for the next three days. Shaykh Husayn al-Safar, a top religious scholar in the Najaf hawza (or seminary), said that Ahmadinejad’s visit is confirmation that the hawza of Najaf is the principle center for Shi’i studies and that the city’s ‘ulama (or religious scholars) are recognized as spiritual leaders of the Shi’a.

Walayat al-Faqih

Another scholar said that despite Sistani’s Iranian identity, Sistani operates outside of the framework of nationalism and politics and that he has not recognized the authority of the walayat al-faqih. The three other grand ayatullahs living in Najaf — Muhammad Sa’id al-Hakim, Muhammad Ishaq al-Fiyad, and Bashir al-Najafi — also do not recognize the concept of walayat al-faqih and refuse to have it taught in the hawza.

(Photo of the Sayyida Zaynab shrine in Damascus from Novine . . . who was allowed to take photos.)

Cryin’

In the summer of 2007, Ahmadinejad paid a visit to Shi’i shrines in Damascus, including the shrines of Sayyida Ruqayya and Sayyida Zaynab. (Ruqayya is the daughter of Imam Husayn and Zaynab his sister.) The big news at this time was that Ahmadinejad broke into tears at Zaynab’s shrine. Maybe we’ll have a repeat showing.

Somebody had to say it

The text on the uniform reads “Olmert” as in the Prime Minister of Israel Ehud Olmert.

From al-Jazeera.

The text reads: Gaza Holocaust (Mahrakat Gaza).

From al-Quds al-Arabi.

Al-Jazeera: Israeli incursions in Gaza kill total of 93, including 17 children and 28 women

Just stating the number of people who have been killed in Gaza is not sufficient to comprehend the widespread violence and destruction which Israel has imposed on the Gaza strip in the past few days. Here is a video from al-Jazeera which can perhaps help people understand the type of terror produced by Israel:

Brief explanation of the video: “This is not a war zone or a field of battle — this is a residential area of the Jabaliya Palestinian camp in Gaza.” At 25 seconds into the video, there is a young man lying on the ground and another youth runs up to him saying, “There is no God but God and Muhammad is his Prophet.” He is most likely saying this because he anticipates that the young man on the ground will die soon. At 1:00, the voice-over says that this is a scene from the Jabaliya Palestinian camp.

Israeli military kills nine Palestinian children and a 5-month-old

(Image of the 5-month-old killed in an Israeli attack from al-Jazeera.)

The heading is not an exaggeration or a misstatement. Over the past 48 hours, the Israeli military launched 30 incursions into Gaza that have left 31 Palestinians dead, including a 5-month-old boy and nine children. Al-Jazeera now reports that Israeli tanks are stationed on the northern border of Gaza signaling the possibility of a widespread Israeli ground incursion.

The photos below are the victims of the Israeli incurisons into Gaza. From al-Jazeera

“Exchange Student Starved While in Egypt”

A 17-year-old American traveled to Egypt for a year-long exchange program where he stayed with a family of Coptic Christians and claimed that they withheld food from him. Over the course of a year (correction: 6 months), he dropped down to 97 pounds. This is, of course, a story being spread in the English-language media under the above headline as well as, “Emaciated in Egypt: Exchange gone wrong.” Click here for the story and the pictures.

The student’s story seems legit and it does appear that the host family did not provide all the food they should have, but does this constitute “starvation”? It’s slightly ridiculous, but I only posted it because the host father’s reaction to charges of “starving the boy” is priceless. He said:

“The truth is, the boy we hosted for nearly six months was eating for an hour and a half at every meal. The amount of food he ate at each meal was equal to six people,” Hanna said.

I think most people that stay in the Middle East for a year come back practically obese. Plus, a shawarma in Egypt costs about 75 cents! Eating a meal of meat covered in sheep fat is kind of a solution to starvation, no? Markets are also plentiful. And besides, the student’s diet doesn’t seem tantamount to starvation.

He said he never got breakfast and his first food of the day usually was a small piece of bread with cucumbers and cheese that he would take to school for lunch. There was a late-afternoon dinner consisting of beans, vegetables and sometimes fish, and a snack of bread later in the evening.

Late-afternoon? Beans and vegetables, but only sometimes fish? The horror!